The chances of Windows 12 launching this year continue to grow slimmer. At CES, Microsoft published a blog post saying that 2025 would be the “year of the Windows 11 refresh,” pretty much delivering a death blow to the idea. The company hasn’t officially commented on whether it’s even developing Windows 12, but I expect that it will come along at some point over the next few years.
Six years passed between the launch of Windows 10 plus Windows 11 in October 2021. Prior to Windows 10, major releases arrived every three years, at least from Windows Vista on. But Windows 10, which was supposedly the “last version of Windows,” marked a shift. Which cadence will we see going forward? It’s a matter of speculation.
When Is Windows 12 Coming?
Since Microsoft moved to an annual feature update cadence for its desktop OS, the next logical time for Windows 12 to arrive will be around September or October 2025, tidily corresponding with the end of life for Windows 10. But given the aforementioned blog post, that now seems unlikely. If we drew a parallel with the Windows 10 lifespan, we’d get Windows 12 in 2027. Yeah, let’s go with that!
Despite not getting a new major version number, the 24H2 Update of Windows 11 is based on a platform codenamed Germanium, which powers the artificial intelligence features in the new Copilot+ PCs. In fact, who’s to say that Windows 12 won’t require a Copilot+ PC equipped with a neural processing unit?
In a September 2023 interview, Intel’s chief financial officer predicted a boost in PC sales due to the “Windows refresh” in 2024. Qualcomm, too, released statements pointing to Windows 12 in 2024. But, in retrospect, those must have been referring to the Copilot+ version of Windows 11 24H2.
One wildcard in all this talk of Windows 12 was the departure of longtime Windows boss Panos Panay, which resulted in a restructuring of the Windows version-numbering schedule. It seems that the new team wants to wait to put its stamp on a future release.
Another consideration is that Windows 11 only just passed 34% worldwide market sharing among Windows versions (according to Statcounter). Windows 10 is still ahead of it, with about 63%. Introducing another version would split up the pie further, especially considering the glacial pace at which many people upgrade.